Our man in the Spanish capital, Phil Kitromilides, believes the champions will keep up their fine home record but will see their defence breached
The game of the weekend in La Liga takes place at Atletico Madrid's Vicente Calderon as the Rojiblancos entertaining high-flying Valencia in what is a pivotal encounter for both sides.
It was always going to be a big ask for Atletico to defend the league crown they won so dramatically on the final day of last season, and while Diego Simeone's men are not out of the title race yet, a draw and a defeat in their last three games has left them looking over their shoulder rather than up at the leaders.
Just a point and a place behind Atleti are a Valencia side that have won four in a row and have the champions in their sights in the race to secure an automatic place in the group stages of next season's Champions League. Things are nicely set up for Sunday's encounter, which sees Unibet price Atletico at29/50 (1.58) while Valencia can be backed at 21/4 (6.25) and the draw is offered at 57/20 (3.85).
Despite the quality of the opponents and their own recent small dip in form, it is extremely difficult to back against Atleti at home. Their Liga record at the Vicente Calderon over the last two-and-a-half seasons reads played 32, won 26, drawn five, lost one.
That solitary defeat came back in December at the hands of Villarreal and, since then, Atleti have won five in a row, scoring 15 goals and conceding twice. Valencia, meanwhile, boast an away record in stark contrast to their own impressive home form, having won just six of their last 25 matches on the road.
The side from the east coast are more than capable of giving the champions are tough game, but it is hard to back against Atletico and to this end the price of 13/4 (4.25) for both teams to score and Atletico to win is appealing.
Atleti's defence is not as impregnable as it was last year and they have conceded goals at home to the likes of Eibar, Levante and Rayo. Valencia can score at the Calderon but it probably will not be enough and this is a good option for a value bet in what should be an entertaining game.
